Superioridad del nuevo puntaje de riesgo ACC/AHA 2013 por sobre el puntaje de Framingham tradicional, en la predicción de riesgo de mortalidad en Santiago
Background: Recently, the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) proposed a new cardiovascular risk (CV) score. Aim: To evaluate the new risk score (ACC/AHA 2013) in a Chilean population. Material and methods: Between 2002 and 2014, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, lipid profile and fasting blood glucose levels were measured and a survey about CV risk factors was responded by 3284 subjects aged 40 to 79 years (38% females), living in urban Santiago. ACC/AHA 2013, FRAM and Chilean FRAM scores were calculated. All-cause mortality was determined in July 2014 by consulting the death Registry of the Chilean Identification Service, with an average follow up of 7 ± 3 years. Results: The prevalence of risk factors were 78% for dyslipidemia, 37% for hypertension, 20% for smoking, 7% for diabetes, 20% for obesity and 54% for physical inactivity. The mean FRAM, Chilean FRAM and ACC/AHA scores were 8, 3 and 9%, respectively. During follow-up, 94 participants died and 34 deaths were of cardiovascular cause. Participants who died had a higher prevalence of hypertension (p<0.01) and diabetes (p<0. 01) and tended to be older (p=0.06). The FRAM score for 10 years for deceased and surviving patients was 12 and 8%, respectively (p = NS). The figures for the Chilean FRAM were 5 and 2%, respectively (p=0. 09). The figures for the ACC/AHA 2013 score were 33 and 9%, respectively (p =0.04). According to receiver operating characteristic curves, ACC/AHA 2013 had a higher area under de curve for CV mortality than FRAM and Chilean FRAM. Conclusions: The new ACC / AHA 2013 score, is better than traditional FRAM and Chilean FRAM scores in predicting cardiovascular mortality in a low risk population.
Decision Support Techniques; Forecasting; Mortality; Risk Factors