Evaluación comparativa entre MELD y Child-Pugh como escalas pronosticas de sobrevida en pacientes con Cirrosis Hepática en Chile

Edgar Sanhueza, Jorge Contreras, Rodrigo Zapata, Matías Sanhueza, Fabián Elgueta, Constanza López, Sigrid Jerez, Verónica Jerez, Iris Delgado


Background: Currently, most liver units use the Child-Pugh (CP) or the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to establish survival prognosis among patients with liver cirrhosis. Which classification is superior, is not well defined. Aim: To compare CP and MELD classification scores to predict survival among adult patients with liver cirrhosis in Chile. Material and methods: Follow-up of 137 consecutive adult patients with liver cirrhosis aged 59 ± 12 years (55% women). The diagnosis was reached by clinical, laboratory and image studies at three different centers of Santiago. Patients were staged with CP and MELD classification scores at baseline and followed over a period of 12 months. The predictive capacity of the scores for survival was analyzed using a multivariate statistical analysis (Kaplan-Meier curves). Results: The most common etiology was alcohol (37.9%). The actuarial survival rate was 79.6% at 12 months of follow-up. When comparing groups with areas under curve of receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), there was no statistically significant difference in survival between less severe and advanced disease, assessed with both survival scales. The AUROC for MELD and CP were 0.80 and 0.81, respectively. Conclusions: This clinical study did not find a statistically significant difference between the two classifications for the prediction of 12 months survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Palabras clave

Liver Cirrhosis; Prognosis; Survival Rate; Roc Curve

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